Hauv xyoo 2021, cov khoom siv sib xyaw ua lag luam cia siab tias: iav fiber ntau tus nqi txuas ntxiv nce carbon fiber ntau
Tsav los ntawm lub teb chaws txoj cai thiab kev lag luam downstream, Tuam Tshoj' cov khoom siv tshiab kev lag luam tseem muaj kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua.Tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig ntawm Tuam Tshoj' cov ntaub ntawv tshiab kev lag luam yog 4.5 trillion yuan hauv 2019, nce 15.4 feem pua ntawm xyoo, raws li Tuam Tshoj Association rau Cov Khoom Siv Tshiab.Raws li kev kwv yees ua ntej ua los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Kev Tshawb Fawb Lub Tsev Haujlwm, lub teb chaws cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab hauv xyoo 2020 yuav ntau dua 6 trillion yuan.
Tam sim no, feem ntau cov khoom siv tshiab tseem nyob rau theem pib thiab kev loj hlob, nrog rau kev lag luam me me thiab kev nkag mus rau kev lag luam tsawg. Los ntawm kev ntxiv dag zog rau cov khoom lag luam tshiab thiab txuas qhov tseem ceeb rau kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis, lawv yuav tau txais kev lag luam dav dav rau yav tom ntej.Nws cia siab tias yuav dhau 7 trillion yuan los ntawm 2021.Tus nqi tso zis ntawm Tuam Tshoj' cov ntaub ntawv tshiab kev lag luam xav tias yuav tawg 10 trillion yuan cim los ntawm 2025, raws li Tuam Tshoj Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Kev Tshawb Fawb Lub Tsev Haujlwm.Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv nonmetallic composite, iav fiber ntau thiab carbon fiber nyob qhov loj tshaj plaws.
I. iav fiber kev lag luam kwv yees
1. Qhov kev thov sab
Cov kev thov hauv tsev tseem muaj zog nyob rau lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2020, thaum cov kev xav tau txawv teb chaws tau khaws: cov khoom muag hauv Monolith Egypt, piv txwv li, tau nqis mus txog li ob lub lis piam, thiab US cov khoom muag tau poob qis.Tsav los ntawm kev txiav txim siab rov qab los ntawm lub tsheb, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab hluav taws xob thiab cov kev xav tau txawv teb chaws, qhov kev thov ntawm iav fiber ntau hauv 2021 yuav zoo dua li xyoo 2020.
2. Cov khoom siv sab nraud
Xyoo 2021, cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv yuav nyob nruab nrab ntawm 500,000 thiab 600,000 tons (chongqing International yuav muab tso rau hauv cov kab ntau lawm nrog txhua xyoo muaj peev xwm ntawm 88,000 tons thiab 45,000 tons raws li lub quarter thib ob, uas yog cov ntaub ntawv ntxiv), uas tseem txwv. piv nrog lub peev xwm tso tawm ntau dua 1 lab tons hauv 2018-2019.
3. Nqe
Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2020, roving thiab cov khoom tseem qhia tus nqi ntawm cov qauv nce (xws li cov xov paj thermoplastic, uas tau nce los ntawm 200 ~ 500 yuan / tuj hauv lub caij off-season thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj). Nyob rau hauv 2021, tseem muaj kev nthuav qhia tus nqi nce kev cia siab, thiab nws muaj feem ntau tias tus nqi yuav ntaus cov ntaub ntawv siab.
4. Cov ntaub siv hluav taws xob
Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb 7628 tau mus txog 5.3 ~ 5.5 yuan / m, thiab cov lag luam feem ntau muaj kev cia siab txog tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub siv hluav taws xob hauv xyoo 2021. Boulder ntseeg tias xyoo 2021 yuav tsum nce siab thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo, nrog rau qhov muaj feem ntau. ntawm tus nqi nce hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021 thiab tsis paub tseeb hauv ib nrab thib ob. Txawm li cas los xij, nws muab cov kev taw qhia ntawm tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm ntau dua 7 yuan / m hauv lub quarter thib ob, uas tshaj qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam.
Feem ntau hais lus, tus nqi nce ntawm cov iav fiber ntau rov qab thiab cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob hauv lub caij off-season tau dhau qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam. Saib rau pem hauv ntej mus rau 2021, nws ntseeg tau tias txoj hauv kev ntawm iav fiber ntau tus nqi nce mus ntxiv, thiab nws cia siab tias qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm Tuam Tshoj Boulder hauv 2021 yuav ua rau cov kev kwv yees tsis tu ncua (nws xav tias yuav nce ntxiv rau 4.5 ~ 5. billion yuan).
II. Kev lag luam carbon fiber forecast
1. Muaj peev xwm nce
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, spurred los ntawm kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua ntawm kev thov sab, theoretical muaj peev xwm ntawm carbon fiber nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no tseem nce ntxiv.Hauv 2019, lub ntiaj teb theoretical peev ntawm carbon fiber tau mus txog 154,900 tons.Feem ntau ntawm lub ntiaj teb no' s carbon fiber ntau muaj peev xwm yog concentrated nyob rau hauv lub tebchaws United States, Nyiv thiab Tuam Tshoj, accounting rau 60.23%, los yog ntau tshaj 60%.Ntawm lawv, lub peev xwm theoretical ntawm carbon fiber yog 37,300 tons hauv Tebchaws Meskas, 29,100 tons hauv Nyiv thiab 26,900 tons hauv Suav teb.
2. Kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no vim qhov zoo ntawm carbon fiber zoo maj mam degrees tau dav siv los ntawm kev lag luam downstream, kev lag luam xav tau txuas ntxiv, xyoo 2019, kev lag luam hauv tsev xav tau 37800 tons ntawm carbon fiber, carbon fiber kev lag luam hauv Suav teb yog tam sim no tshwm sim. kev loj hlob, kev xav tau yav tom ntej rau carbon fiber kev lag luam kev loj hlob nyob ib ncig ntawm 17%, nrog carbon fiber ntau li peev rau hauv kev lag luam carbon fiber,Nrog kev ua tsis tiav hauv cov tshuab carbon fiber ntau, qhov kev thov teb yuav nthuav dav ntxiv. Nws cia siab tias Tuam Tshoj' s carbon fiber kev lag luam xav tau yuav tawg mus txog 110,000 tons hauv 2026.
3. Tsawg dependence rau imports
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Tuam Tshoj' cov kev lag luam carbon fiber maj mam tawm ntawm lub trough, kev siv lub peev xwm txuas ntxiv txhim kho, kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam ntshuam poob qis xyoo los ntawm xyoo.Los ntawm 2019, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov pa roj carbon fiber ntau tau poob mus rau 69 feem pua, thiab xav tias yuav poob ntxiv mus rau 55.9 feem pua los ntawm 2025.Kev lag luam hauv tsev carbon fiber yog maj mam rov qab los ntawm trough. Cov kev lag luam zoo tshaj plaws carbon fiber ntau tau nthuav dav thiab nthuav kev lag luam ntawm qhov nrawm nrawm raws li kev siv thev naus laus zis thiab kev tsim kho tshiab.
4. Hloov hauv kev thov qauv
Muaj cov qauv sib txawv ntawm Tuam Tshoj' s carbon fiber xav tau thiab kev thov txawv teb chaws.Qhov kev thov ntawm carbon fiber nyob rau hauv cov khoom kis las hauv Suav teb yog ntau ua ntej ntawm txawv teb chaws;Cua turbine hniav, lub tsev sab nrauv phab ntsa teb tau nyob qhov kom zoo dua;Nyob rau hauv lub nkoj siab, aerospace, tsheb thiab lwm yam kev lag luam, daim ntawv thov ntawm carbon fiber nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj lags qab lub ntiaj teb no advanced theem.Qhov sib txawv ntawm cov qauv hauv kev xav tau carbon fiber ntau hauv tsev kuj qhia txog cov qauv tsim. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, Tuam Tshoj' s aerospace, siab nkoj, tsheb thiab lwm yam kev lag luam yuav tsum tau pom ib tug tseem ceeb nce nyob rau hauv xav tau qhov chaw.